The conflict in the Middle East continues to heat up after Sunday’s deadly drone attack by suspected Iran-backed militants on a U.S. military outpost in Jordan that left three U.S. service members dead and more than 30 wounded.
For weeks, the Biden administration has tried to use a limited approach to stop attacks by Iran-backed militants in Iraq and Syria—who have targeted U.S. service members in those countries 165 times since October, according to one U.S. official—in an effort to prevent the conflict in the Middle East, which has already expanded beyond the Gaza Strip to include southern Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, from escalating into a full-fledged regional war.
According to an article in Foreign Policy, the Biden administration has three retaliatory options:
Strikes inside Iran to damage the economic capability of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, including its ability to engage in international arms sales. This could be coupled with economic sanctions that restrict the sale of Iranian oil, further diminishing Iran’s ability to carry on its actions in the region. The hawkish elements in the GOP say that this includes attacks against the Iranian capital of Tehran, although more cautious voices are concerned about the widespread civilian casualties this would cause.
Strikes against Iranian assets based outside of Iran, including Iranian ships.
Diplomatic re-engagement. Diplomacy with Iran was ended during the administration of #P01135809 when he withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal. Until Hamas’s attack on Israel's territory last October, the U.S. administration believed that diplomatic efforts to normalize ties between Israel and the Gulf states would put the Middle East on track for peace and prosperity. Now the question is whether an aggressive response from the United States will further diminish the chances of peace in the Middle East – already an unlikely result.
Foreign Policy based its analysis on interviews with a range of former officials and experts, none of whom thought that the Biden administration was considering large-scale strikes on Tehran or something that would take out Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But there’s a risk calculus for Tehran here, too. Nathan Sales, a former State Department coordinator for counterterrorism during the former administration, said that Iran is trying to avoid open war with the United States at all costs. “They know that if they engage in open conflict with the United States, that is existential to the regime,” he said.
The usual suspects in the United States Senate are calling for swift and direct action against Iran in response to these attacks.
In today’s episode of Pod Save the World, Ben Rhodes and Tommy Vietor spend the first half of the program on various aspects of the Hamas-Israel war and various American options in response to the escalating attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf as well as the attack that killed the American soldiers on Sunday. Yesterday, President Biden announced that he has decided what the United States will do in response to these attacks; he has not yet said what that decision is. I suspect we’ll find out when the response, whatever it will be, is over.
After diverting for 15 minutes or so to discuss some other world events, the podcast ends with a 25-minute interview with Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, about Iranian proxy groups, why Iran funds them, and the US conventional wisdom that Iran can only be deterred through military action.
I have a personal interest in the safety and security of Iran. In 2015 or so, I began to tutor a woman from Iran who wanted to improve her English language skills. I’ll call her Samira. We met once a week or so for several years and became very close. Her husband (I’ll call him Reza) was a graduate student at William & Mary, after receiving his undergraduate degree from another university in the United States. In 2017, he was scheduled to complete his Ph.D. and was planning to get a job at a university in the United States – he wanted to pay back the country that had provided him with an education, although they planned eventually to return to Iran.
That all changed in the spring of 2017. The abhorrent “Muslim Ban” attempted early in the #P01135809 administration had put their plans on hold, as universities across the country chose not to interview Reza because they could not be certain of his immigration status. He was here on a student visa, and Samira had the appropriate visa as his spouse. To get a full-time job, however, they had to get green cards (permanent resident cards). It wasn’t at all clear that was going to be possible.
Reza finished his doctorate. I attended his dissertation defense with Samira, and we were all smiles. Samira brought a cake. However, that evening I got a frantic message from Samira – they were at Dulles airport, on their way back to Iran. Samira’s brother was dying, and the family had not told Samira and Reza so that he could finish his schooling. They were flying back to Iran that evening, and doubted that they would ever be able to return. They were right; they are living in Tehran seven years later.
I went to Reza and Samira’s apartment the next Saturday with some of their friends to clean out their stuff so that their landlord could rent their apartment to new tenants. They had left with a suitcase and the clothes on their backs. We were all crying as we cleaned out their cupboards and closets and decided what to do with their furniture and kitchen utensils.
I still keep up with Samira through social media, and I miss her a lot. She called me her American mother, and I think of her as a bonus daughter.
Samira is a gentle, sweet, and kind woman with a fierce intelligence and unbounded loyalty to her family, friends, and her country. Reza is a brilliant scholar who has found a place at an Iranian university. They now have several children and I don’t imagine they will ever leave Iran. Reza had aspirations of becoming a global leader in his field, and right now his Iranian passport makes him unwelcome in many parts of the world.
This is one small-scale tragedy among millions of tragedies large and small. When people say things like “The United States must bomb Iran,” I think only on Reza and Samira. It still makes me cry.
It’s almost impossible for a non-expert like me to make sense of what’s going on in the Middle East right now. Lucky for me, finding experts to explain things to me is easier than it’s ever been. That’s why I listen to smart people in order to learn about complex topics.
Thank you for sharing the beautiful story about Samir and Reza. I imagine a world where stories like yours will be the normal events of everyday life. I also imagine a world where diplomacy and conversations and kindness will also become the normal events of everyday life. Wouldn’t it be wonderful? My hope and prayer is President Biden will surprise us all by forging a peaceful way forward.
My, my. What a heart-breaking story. If everyone in the world knew just one family in other countries, the world could be quite different. I believe in diplomacy and do not want us in anymore 20-year wars, nor expansion of combat in the Middle East. Thank you for this post. May President Biden do what he knows is right to move toward the end of this horrible conflict.