We Ride At Dawn
If you’ve been reading my Substack for a while, you’ve seen my essays on elections in my home state, Virginia. For historical reasons that are too boring to talk about right now, Virginia holds its state-wide elections in odd-numbered years while holding federal elections in even-numbered years. This is what this will look like for the next few years.
2024: Federal elections for President, United States Senate (Tim Kaine’s seat), and House of Representatives
2025: Statewide elections for Governor/Lieutenant Governor/Attorney General and the state House of Delegates.
2026: Midterm elections for House of Representatives and United States Senate (Mark Warner’s seat)
2027: Virginia State Senate and Virginia House of Delegates
2028: Federal elections for President, United States Senate (Tim Kaine’s seat), and House of Representatives
The fact that Virginia’s statewide elections always occur the year following the presidential election means that pundits and others look to these results as the first referendum on the person who was elected President the previous year.
Let’s see how this has worked out in the past. From 1977 through 2009, voters in Virginia elected a governor from the party that did NOT win the presidency the previous year.
1977 – Republican wins after Carter (D)
1981 – Democrat wins after Reagan (R)
1985 – Democrat wins after Reagan (R)
1989 – Democrat wins after Bush (R)
1993 – Republican wins after Clinton (D)
1997 – Republican wins after Clinton (D)
2001 – Democrat wins after Bush (R)
2005 – Democrat wins after Bush (R)
2009 – Republican wins after Obama (D)
This did not hold true in 2013: voters in Virginia elected a Democrat (Terry McAuliffe) as governor after Obama won the presidential election in 2012
But the pattern soon returned:
2017: Democrat wins after Trump (R)
2021: Republican wins after Biden (D)
The 2017 victory began a slew of successful Democratic Party elections in Virginia. Before the Congressional midterm elections in 2018, the partisan balance among the 11 members of the House from Virginia was seven Republicans and four Democrats; after those elections, the balance was flipped to seven Democrats and four Republicans. In 2019, voters gave the Democrats control of the state Senate by the slimmest of margins (21-19) and gave control of the House of Delegates to Democrats (by a 55-45 majority). In 2022, the partisan margin in the House of Representatives slipped to 6D and 5R (Elaine Luria was the Democrat who lost her seat. You may remember her from the House Select Committee that investigated the January 6 insurrection. She had a target on her back).
This is to say that in 2025, Virginia has a chance to punch MAGA in the face by electing Democrats to the state executive positions and a Democratic majority in the House. The Democratic majority in the state Senate will remain in place until 2027, so this would give Democrats a governing trifecta in Virginia to showcase an alternative vision for America in clear contrast to the MAGA clown show that will be in full bloom in Washington next year.
And there’s really good news about Democrats’ chances next year. Representative Abigail Spanberger was one of the women elected to Congress in the electrifying 2018 midterm elections, and she is currently the only candidate seeking the Democratic Party’s nomination for Governor in 2025. The sitting Republican Lieutenant Governor, Winsome Sears, has declared her candidacy, and there is some expectation that the current Attorney General, Republican Jason Miyares, will also declare himself a candidate for this seat. The incumbent Governor, Glenn Young, is prohibited by the Virginia State Constitution from running for a second consecutive term.
Why am I telling you this?
If you live in Virginia, this is the time to get on board the Spanberger train. She did not run for reelection to her Congressional seat in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. But never fear – a Democrat won the seat last week. You may recognize the name: Eugene Vindman, deputy legal advisor for the United States National Security in the Trump administration. His twin brother, Alexander Vindman, testified before Congress regarding Trump’s “perfect phone call” with Ukraine that led to his first impeachment.
If you don’t live in Virginia, you almost certainly won’t have any elections in your state next year. New Jersey will elect its governor and lieutenant governor in 2025, but no other state is doing anything. So here’s what you need to do to feel like you’re helping during this time when we’re all vacillating between shock, anger, and despair. As Michelle Obama instructed us – “DO SOMETHING.”
Her website tells you what you can do to help her campaign, either by volunteering or by donating to her effort. You know the Republicans are going to throw everything they can at her to prevent a MAGA smackdown.
One thing that will make this race interesting is that Virginia has a whole lot of voters who work in Washington, DC – either as federal employees or as employees whose jobs depend on this workforce. The Trump administration’s threat to hollow out the federal bureaucracy hits particularly hard in Northern Virginia – but also in my part of Virginia, Hampton Roads.
We have a lot of military bases in the area – Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines – and, although the defense department is likely to take a lesser hit than other parts of the government, this plan will impact the local economy.
Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads are two of the three most populated areas of the state, as this map shows. It’s going to be interesting to watch MAGA try to “drain the swamp” while needing votes from the very people he is denigrating.
When Terry McAuliffe won the Governor’s seat in 2017, Virginia voters were the first in America to point out the naked Emperor in the White House (I’m sorry for providing you this image). It would be wonderful to do this again in 2025.
So rest, recover, recuperate through the rest of this year. But then join Abigail’s campaign so we can all spit in Trump’s eye in November of 2025. You know you want to.
I've supported Spanberger since she first announced. I'm delighted with the new rep for her district, District 7. Such interesting statistics on Virginia's voting habits. Interesting and weird in that our voting behavior has been so (relatively) consistent. One would think that with all the people who have won elections because they are "business men" and only then learned the difference between business management and governmental leadership would finally understand the value in not trying to force one construct on the other.
Prior to the 2020 redistricting Abigail Spanberger was our Representative, and I was lucky enough to meet her in person - twice - at fundraisers when she first ran for the seat. (Full disclosure, my husband has donated monthly since the very beginning, so maybe a little bias here!) We found her just as knowledgeable and approachable then as the person you see on TV. Like other women in national office - think Warren, Klobashar, and even Haley (equal opportunity here) and her time as a federal officer taught her a lot about how the government opperates outside of Congress. She is definitely as qualified as the current gov.
All that to ask the question: Will Va elect a woman?
When I look at that swath of red on your graphic, it's hauntingly reminiscent of a larger map after this recent election. That, plus the Mary Sue Terry's experience more than 20 years ago makes me wonder. In some ways it augers even worse for a possible run for Winsome Sears, altho there are all those red counties ... So, lots of work to do.