Turn Around, Don't Drown!
According to
https://whatismyelevation.com/
, my house is 26 feet above sea level. An area of Norfolk, Virginia, called “The Hague” sits at 0 feet above sea level. Rodanthe, North Carolina, is at 3 feet above sea level. Three beachfront houses fell into the sea in Rodanthe last week. When we get a big storm event in this part of the coast, we get coastal flooding.
According to a local news source, wind and offshore storms are pushing water onto the roads and flooding the streets all over the area. That's exactly what happens when water from The Hague runs through the streets near the Chrysler Museum of Art. As the tide comes in, the water get higher. Ducks swim down the street and if you looked carefully, you can even spot some fish on Grace Street.
This may all be cute, but it’s not good.
Coastal flooding is not just a temporary east coast event. Here’s what NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) says about sea level rise.
Sea level rise, caused by climate change and land-based ice melt, is increasing the volume of water in the ocean. NOAA works with other national agencies, state agencies, and universities to model sea level trends and project future rise around the world’s coastlines.
Cities like Norfolk, Virginia, are experiencing increased occurrences of flooding at high tide. Scientists call these events nuisance floods or “sunny day flooding.” The number of these floods has doubled since the year 2000. While they may seem minor, they cause inconvenient road closures, storm drain issues, and degrade infrastructure.
I started thinking about all of this yesterday, when I saw a Tweet from the Norfolk Tides (a Triple-A minor league affiliate of the Baltimore Orioles). Here’s what it said:
I laughed out loud. The tweet didn’t say it, but Water Street was closed because of flooding. But apparently Tidewater Drive was still okay.
For many coastal dwellers, it is obvious that flooding events are happening more and more frequently. But the long-term data collected by NOAA provides conclusive evidence of what is causing this—sea level rise. The causes of sea-level rise may be open to debate, but the fact that the sea level is rising is not.
This chart makes the point.
Occasional flooding is a casual nuisance. More frequent flooding forces businesses to relocate or to close entirely. Cleanup is constant, they can’t get flood insurance, and people can’t get to their locations. Many iconic coastal areas will become uninhabitable.
Venice’s St. Mark’s Square is already a wading pool on many days of the year.
Waikiki Beach in Hawaii is washing away. Efforts to replenish eroding beaches with important sand are expensive and temporary measures. The sea always wins.
Miami Beach is flooded often enough that the state of Florida is investing a lot of money to prevent further damage. See above – the sea always wins.
Residents of the Maldives in the Indian Ocean are expected to be relocated to land purchased in other countries. The sea always wins.
Parts of Key West are expected to be underwater by 2040. The sea always wins.
In my part of the country, Norfolk, Virginia, is preparing for both adaptation and retreat. The city is identifying neighborhoods that should be abandoned rather than protected by seawalls, and it is considering using city funds to purchase and destroy 20 homes near Norfolk State University. One church in the Ghent neighborhood of Norfolk was affected so often by high water that it added a link on its website to tidal flooding reports, and finally sold the building to move to higher ground. I wonder who they sold it to.
Over the last 100 years, average sea level — as measured by a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency tide gauge that's been in place for a century at Naval Station Norfolk — has risen 18 inches. According to NOAA projections, it is expected to rise between 1-3 feet by 2050. That increase in sea level, coupled with the typical rise and fall of the tide and seasonal weather events common to an oceanside community, poses a risk to national security – in particular, the Navy's ability to conduct and support operations in the Atlantic.
Naval bases pretty much have to be located on the seacoast, which makes them particularly vulnerable to sea level rise. Naval Station Norfolk is the largest naval base in the world; it is the home to the United States Atlantic Fleet. The base population includes more than 82,000 active duty personnel, 112,000 family members, and 39,000 civilians. To say that this base is important to the regional economy in southeastern Virginia is an understatement. In 2019 there were 14 days in the area where high tides were half a meter above the daily average high tide. According to NOAA, this is projected to increase up to 25 days by 2030 and to 65 days by 2050. The Department of Defense has updated the unified facilities criteria – the building code that governs the construction of facilities and infrastructure on military bases. New construction has to take into account climate change.
Once again for the people in the back – the sea always wins.