Trust, Once Lost . . .

Trump is whining about the refusal of America’s traditional allies to assist the United States in opening up the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed because of Trump’s decision to attack Iran because he wants to deflect attention from the Epstein files. He has complained publicly over the last few days, saying things like “we’ve helped them and now they won’t help us,” even though the only time Article Five of the NATO Treaty has been activated was in response to the attacks on the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001.

Fourteen member states of the alliance conducted frontline operations in the subsequent war in Afghanistan: the UK, Canada, the Netherlands, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Poland, Turkey, Romania, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Spain. The intensity and duration of these efforts varied widely.

These are not huge numbers, but they aren’t nothing, either.

There is a simple reason America’s NATO allies will hesitate – and probably refuse – to commit to the support of Trump’s actions in this ‘excursion.’ He can’t be trusted. That’s it in a nutshell.

When allied nations commit to supporting one another during a conflict, they agree to cooperate on both strategy (the purposes and processes of conducting the war) and tactics (what forces or weapons will be deployed when and where to achieve strategic goals). Trump has not been able to explain his strategy – or, to be more honest, he has not been able to settle on a single public explanation of why he chose this path and what he expects the situation in the region to look like once the action concludes.

Without this explanation, the leaders of other nations will be loath to commit their forces lest they be identified with an unpredictable result. How can these leaders explain their decision to support Trump? Unlike the United States Congress under the current Republican Party leadership, the legislatures of other nations demand accountability from their leaders. Governments will rise or fall based on the decisions these leaders make.

But Trump won’t care one bit about this. He operates on gut feelings and ignores advice he doesn’t want to follow. No leader of another country will commit to a policy that Trump is likely to abandon any time he gets tired of it. Remember Greenland? Venezuela? Bombing drug boats in the Caribbean? The list goes on.

Trump doesn’t wait for Tuesdays to TACO.

• I’m reminded of the negotiations to end the American Revolution. France entered into an alliance with the Americans in 1778 with one caveat — that the United States include France in all peace negotiations with Britain. France did not want to be hung out to dry if the US decided it could get a better deal by negotiating with Britain on its own. You can probably guess the ending — the Americans negotiated with Britain and left France out, leading to a separate treaty between France and Britain. There were actually four treaties that ended the Revolution, not one. Benjamin Franklin was the American diplomat who decided on this course of action, willing to alienate the French if the result was a better treaty for the United States.