If the last several years have proven anything, it is that the 2024 presidential election will be a real s**tshow. Let’s look at the reality. There are only four options for what will happen during this election cycle.
#P01135809 wins and the country goes to s**t
We need to be clear about this. However bad the first #P01135809 term was, his second term will be worse. Team Normal played a role in his first term, but they are all gone. The GOP has gone full MAGA, and Team Crazy will be running the show. If you need convincing, check out #P01135809’s authoritarian playbook captured in Project 2025. Here’s the Wikipedia entry on this plan. If you need more convincing, check out Jonathan Swan’s Axios reporting (links are provided at the bottom of the Wikipedia article).
#P01135809 has already corrupted two of the three branches of the federal government – the judiciary and the legislature. His plans will be complete when he takes over the executive branch. Meanwhile, across the country, his acolytes are corrupting state governments in the same way.
He has said he will be a dictator – cutely adding “on day one.” But he doesn’t plan to stop on day one. He plans to remove the guardrails that limit presidential power. It’s still not clear right now that those guardrails will prevail against the damage he did during his first term. The current uncertain status of the various criminal indictments against him proves that. They will certainly not hold if he gets another bite of the apple.
Biden wins and MAGA loses its s**t
Let’s be clear about this as well. #P01135809 and his voters WILL NOT ACCEPT any result that claims a victory for President Biden or other Democrats. President Biden said in his Statue of the Union address last week, “You can’t love your country only when you win.” In response, MAGA says “Hold my beer.” The MAGA GOP (and there is no non-MAGA GOP) is working at all levels of government to sew doubts about election integrity. Their half-assed efforts after the 2020 election caused (and are still causing) enormous damage. Their 2024 efforts will be fully-assed and more damaging. The January 6 attack on the Capitol will look mild by comparison.
I am an election worker and I’m scheduled to work on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Before the previous election, we all received a briefing on how to handle disruptive voters at the precinct. We haven’t experienced any problems, but I’m concerned that November 5, 2024 will tell a different story.
#P01135809 dies before November or is otherwise incapacitated or incarcerated, the Republicans lose their s**t, and the country goes to s**t.
#P01135809 will turn 78 in June of this year. He is not the picture of health, let’s just say. Living in a constant state of rage while consuming an unhealthy diet is not a recipe for longevity. His mental state is also – shall we say – questionable. He has proven for years that he is bats**t crazy. Now he appears to be adding some level of dementia to his overall health. He could stroke out or continue to deteriorate at his current enhanced speed over the next few months.
Or he could die as a result of violence. At the Constitutional Convention, Benjamin Franklin supported including the impeachment clause as an “alternative to assassination.” When the GOP members of the Senate refused to convict him in the two impeachment trials (we only fell short by three – THREE – GOP Senators), they allowed the s**tshow to grow. It would not surprise me one bit if someone decided to take this into their own hands.
NOTE PLEASE: I am not advocating this. MAGA will not disappear if #P01135809 is no longer around. And it is MAGA, with or without #P01135809, that endangers the nation.
If #P01135809 dies or is severely and unignorably (is that a word?) incapacitated, the GOP does not have a deep bench. A candidate who attempts to take his place on the ticket will not be able to appease the cult members who have pledged their fealty to the Orange One. The Republicans who come out of the woodwork to somehow claim that they were part of Team Normal all along will alienate the MAGA base.
If #P01135809 is incarcerated (an increasingly unlikely but still possible scenario), MAGA will be in a constant state of s**t-losing. I think this is entirely unpredictable. All I can predict is that it will be ugly.
If the vacancy occurs before the nominating convention, the various also-rans (Nikki, Ron, Vivek, etc.) will try to reestablish their campaigns. That’s why they only suspended their campaigns rather than disband them. I can’t think through all of the variables that will be in play. If it happens after the nominating convention, the Republican National Committee can either reconvene the national convention or select a new candidate itself. Because #P01135809 has installed MAGA loyalists in the leadership of the RNC, the replacement would be the MAGA-est of MAGA.
Biden dies before November or is otherwise incapacitated, the Democrats briefly lose their s**t, and the country loses its s**t anyway.
As the media reminds us daily, President Biden will turn 82 two weeks after the November election. Although he is observably healthier than #P01135809 in every way, the report on his health from February of 2024 shows that he has many conditions common to people of his age – sleep apnea, atrial fibrillation, high cholesterol, acid reflux, seasonal allergies, osteoarthritis, and peripheral neuropathy. All of these are being managed through medication, physical therapy, and dietary accommodations. None of these threaten his life in the short or medium term, but they will all worsen as he continues to age.
The MAGA base also contains individuals who may believe that they have to help the country “get rid of” President Biden. They have already proven themselves willing to martyr themselves to their Tangerine Caligula. After all, they threatened to “Hang Mike Pence.” It’s not beyond the scope of believability that one of them would decide to be the John Wilkes Booth of this era.
If President Biden dies or is severely incapacitated, the Democrats have a deep bench and an abundance of able replacements. There will be a fight but they all seem to be eligible for Team Normal.
If this were to happen before the Democratic National Convention in June, it would be an “open” convention, meaning that the delegates pledged to Biden through the primary process would be free to support another candidate. Vice President Harris would be the natural front-runner, but I imagine other Democrats whose presidential ambitions were stifled by Biden’s decision to seek a second term would step up their game to try to claim the nomination. This could be a messy convention, but it would be manageable. I think the Democrats would largely come together after the convention to present a united face to the electorate.
If this were to happen after the Convention, no law governs what happens. The Democratic National Committee is empowered to fill a vacancy on the national ticket after the convention under party rules after the party chair consults with Democratic governors and congressional leadership.
Have I laid out the options accurately? I think so.
A few months ago, Rachel Maddow stated starkly in a memorable A-block on her show that only the GOP itself can stop #P01135809. Not the courts, not the legislatures, not the voters. The party could deny him the nomination. But they won’t. It’s too late for that, and they lost their spines long ago. They know that if they denied him while it was within their power to do so, he would have run as a third-party candidate and guaranteed a Biden victory. As Senator Lindsay Graham said in 2016, “If we nominate [#P01135809] he will destroy us . . . and we will deserve it.”
Lindsay voted against impeaching #P01135809 in 2021. So did most of the GOP caucus. The only GOP members with spines were Richard Burr of North Carolina, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Utah, Ben Sasse of Nebraska, and Patrick Toomey of Pennsylvania. Only Cassidy, Collins, and Murkowski are still in the Senate.
Tearfully appreciate what I think is a spot-on analysis.
You are right, this is going to be ugly. On a side note, my main hope was the Fulton county prosecution of Trump for racketeering which has become unglued by Willis and Wade's stupidity. At first, I wondered how anyone could be that stupid but then I realized their example is the Supreme Court of the US.