For the last 16 months, the world has been feeling the effects of the war that was caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in March of 2022. Even before that (going back at least to the 2014 Russian occupation of Chechnya, a region of Ukraine), Ukraine and other countries in Eastern Europe have been threatened by an aggressively expansive Russian state led by Vladimir Putin.
When this invasion began, major Western news networks deployed journalists on the ground in Ukraine to document the horrors of modern warfare (often with breathless immediacy *cue the sirens and background explosions*). World relief organizations stepped up their efforts to provide humanitarian aid to the Ukrainian people as their cities and civilian populations came under Russian attack. However, most of the journalists are now back in their newsrooms and studios, and support for Ukraine from global NGOs has been diluted by newer pressing needs.
Western nations have welcomed Ukrainian refugees (some nations have been more effusive than others in this welcome). Ukrainians and Russians who were threatened by Russia’s aggressive stance in the region have fled to claim political asylum in other countries. We have seen stories of Ukrainian dancers and athletes pursuing their passions in exile. Other stories feature Russian citizens who have fled because their opposition to Putin in Russia put them and their families in danger.
I have been tutoring a Russian asylum seeker who fled to the US in March 2022; she was a Russian TV journalist whose family was threatened when she objected to reading Russian propaganda on the air in the immediate aftermath of the invasion. Her sponsor while she goes through the asylum process (it takes a long time) is her brother, a scientist and engineer who lives in Williamsburg and works for a local research lab. He has been an American citizen for 20 years. She and her family are lucky in this regard. They have reasonably stable financial support as they work their way through an overloaded and understaffed immigration system.
What we haven’t heard so much about – particularly in recent months – is the international effort to negotiate some kind of negotiated agreement that would, at a minimum, stop the killing. The best result would be a peace agreement that would reduce the tensions in the region and allow the countries of Eastern Europe to continue on a path toward democracy.
At the G7 summit in Japan in May of this year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated a 10-point peace plan that he initially proposed at the November 2022 G20 summit in Germany. Here is Zelenskyy’s “peace formula:”
Radiation and nuclear safety, focusing on restoring safety around Europe's largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine, which is now Russian-occupied.
Food security, including protecting and ensuring Ukraine's grain exports to the world's poorest nations.
Energy security, with a focus on price restrictions on Russian energy resources, as well as aiding Ukraine with restoring its power infrastructure, half of which has been damaged by Russian attacks.
Release of all prisoners and deportees, including war prisoners and children deported to Russia.
Restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity and Russia reaffirming it according to the U.N. Charter, which Zelenskiy said is "not up to negotiations".
Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, restoration of Ukraine's state borders with Russia.
Justice, including the establishment of a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes.
Prevention of ecocide, the need for protection of the environment, with a focus on demining and restoring water treatment facilities.
Prevention of escalation of conflict, and building security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic space, including guarantees for Ukraine.
Confirmation of the war's end, including a document signed by the involved parties.
Much of the information in the next few paragraphs comes from a July 31 New York Times article. (Here is a “gift” link to the article, which you can read even if you don’t have a NYT subscription,)
At the end of July (just a few days ago), Saudia Arabia announced its plans to host talks on Ukraine’s peace plan with several other countries this weekend (August 5-6, apparently) in the coastal city of Jeddah. Several countries, including the United States and European nations, along with Brazil, China and India, had been invited, though it was not immediately clear who would attend. Russia did not appear to be among those invited. The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, said that “Russia will keep an eye on this meeting” but would need “to fully understand what goals are being set,” Russia’s state-run Tass news agency reported on Monday.
Just my two cents here: you can’t really have a “peace” negotiation if the invading nation is not included in the discussion. This meeting is more focused on finding broad agreement on the position the other nations of the world could take in any upcoming negotiations.
News of the talks was first reported last Saturday by The Wall Street Journal, which said that Saudi Arabia would host the meetings on Aug. 5 and 6. It follows a similar event in Copenhagen in June, The Journal reported. On Sunday, the head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Andriy Yermak, said that a meeting about implementing his country’s plan “to restore lasting and just peace” would be held in Saudi Arabia “soon,” with the attendance of world leaders’ national security and political advisers.
In a more recent statement, the Biden administration said that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken would be attending this weekend’s meeting
The meeting is another example of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s efforts to position himself as a global leader with influence beyond his region — and to carve out a role for the kingdom as a mediator. In May, Prince Mohammed invited President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to make an appearance at a summit of Arab States, where the Ukrainian leader urged Middle Eastern nations to stand with his country against Russia and called out their reluctance to take sides in the war. Like many countries in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia maintains close ties with Russia, which coordinates with the kingdom on energy prices as a key member of the ‘OPEC Plus’ cartel of oil exporters.
I came across a reference to this proposed meeting in the last couple of days as I read about important events across the world. This process is important to the United States for several reasons, not the least of which is the military and civilian aid that the US and other nations have promised Ukraine over the course of this war. Foreign aid is always a ready target for isolationist movements in the US. In the current US political climate, this isolationism has taken root in the broad “America First” language of the political right.
As the twice-impeached thrice-indicted defeated candidate, serial philanderer, and con artist former POTUS (FPOTUS?) continues his efforts to run for office in 2024 in order to stay out of prison, his promises to negotiate an end to this conflict “in 24 hours” threatens any serious effort to attain peace in the region. This threat one reason why formerly neutral countries in Europe (most recently, Finland and Sweden) have joined NATO; NATO membership for Ukraine is also likely soon. The political right in the US has characterized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an understandable response to NATO’s encroachment on Russia’s eastern flank. The reality is just the reverse: the growing strength of NATO is a direct result of Russia’s aggressive posture in Eastern Europe, which was evident long before 2022.
This issue will play a role in the upcoming 2024 presidential campaign. Because foreign aid is money spent “over there” (*waves hands generally in the air above my head*), it is frequently seen as “money that does not help the people in the United States.” It is beyond the scope of this essay this morning to talk about how money spent “over there” reduces many pressures and economic challenges “over here,” but it’s not hard to find information that will fill in this information if you’re interested.
We should not confuse the political theater embodied in a campaign with the reality of what’s actually happening in the world.
Right on. Of course you probably know that I believe that money spent in Ukraine today ensures our democracy tomorrow in more ways than one. Very good piece. And important.