Four weeks ago I wrote my first “The Stakes, Not the Odds” essays, focused on the impact of a second term for #PO1135809 on healthcare policy in the United States. Three weeks ago I wrote my second essay in this series, focused on what foreign policy might look like in his second term. Two weeks ago I wrote the third essay, focusing on the impact on the overall functioning of government and the judiciary. Last week I wrote about how the white supremacy inherent in the MAGA approach to governing will kill the America we have known. I’m repeating the first page or so of my introductory essay before I go into this week’s essay
It’s January of 2024, and we are less than a year away from the 2024 presidential election. We should be worried because President Biden’s popularity as reflected in the polls is lower than that of his likely opponent, #PO1135809. I can’t, for the life of me, understand why people think that it’s a good idea to give #PO1135809 another term in the White House, but that seems to be the case – at least for now.
We saw a couple of statements from #PO1135809 last week that warned us clearly about his plans. He confirmed in a public interview that he plans to be a dictator “on Day One” if he is reelected. We should take him both seriously and literally. He was never funny, and he is no longer even a bad joke.
Warning signs are flashing around the world. A second term for #PO1135809 would be a – well we don’t really have a term for BEYOND disaster, but that’s what it would be. You don’t have to trust me on this – Google “Trump” “second term” and “authoritarian” to see articles from around the world about this threat. The January/February issue of Atlantic (soon to be released) is totally devoted to this threat. We should all read it. Yes, sources like the Atlantic are not free. It costs something under $100 per year, depending on what plan you select. Eight dollars a month, give or take. Quality journalism is worth paying for.
I have friends (acquaintances, tbh) who have decided to take the moral “high ground” and refuse to vote for either Biden or #PO1135809. They refuse to accept the notion that this is not the hillside to die on.
The media tend to focus on elections as horseraces – who’s ahead, who’s behind, who’s lagging, who’s coming up on the inside, who is the “dark horse” that you didn’t see coming. This is not helpful in our current situation. Instead of the “odds” of Biden winning reelection, we should be talking about the “stakes” at play here. What would a second #PO1135809 administration look like?
Incumbent presidents have a hard task when they run for reelection because voters see the election as a referendum on the incumbent’s effectiveness during his first term. Effectiveness is always gauged by the vaunted “pocketbook” issues – how the economy is performing.
This sense of a president’s effectiveness is driven both by the reality of what’s happening and their perception of what’s happening. In the current campaign cycle, the information silos accessed by various segments of the electorate are not receiving the same information about the economy and are being provided with different narratives about why things are the way they are. This is important because GOP promises to undo the accomplishments of the Biden administration are finding traction among people who don’t believe that Biden has done anything positive.
By any objective standard, President Biden’s economic performance has been solid. Here are a few charts to tell us about this.
Everyone’s worried about inflation. Voters experience it in their everyday expenditures on things like groceries and gasoline. The following tables tell a story that should be helpful to Biden:
However, this is the image that has stuck in people’s heads:
But this is the current reality.
And we all remember these images as well.
But this is no longer the reality – and it was never President Biden’s fault to begin with. Google Avian Flu and Price of Eggs to see what was going on.
And while we’re talking about inflation, let’s consider another factor.
So what does this tell us about what’s at stake in the upcoming election? This is where the title for this essay comes in – it is indeed true that Democrats are good for the economy. We need to remind voters of this.
Take the deficit: this chart tells us what the deficit has been under the last six presidents.
It’s not hard to get up-to-date information on the performance of the economy.
That’s probably enough for this morning. In its quest for power, the GOP is continuing to mislead the public about the accomplishments of President Biden’s first term in office. But the Democrats are pushing back (although I’d like them to push harder).
I encourage you to check all of this out (don’t just trust my analysis) and internalize the conclusions you think are most supportable. Then use this information when you’re having political conversations with friends or family. Just don’t begin your responses with, “Well, actually . . .” because that’s annoying.
Great visuals, Karen. Thank you!
This is another "right on" hit for you, Karen. I hope you don't mind if I share via Facebook. People need to be more aware of figures like this. I understand that unemployment under PO1135809 was high because of the Pandemic, but not enough coverage is given to Biden's work. Too many "media" wannabes continue to denigrate Biden and call him "sleepy Joe." How come he's "Sleepy Joe" but he's fully WOKE?