We all know that only 1/3 of the Senate is up for election every two years. It’s not hard to understand why the men at the Constitutional Convention set it up this way. They wanted the Senate to be an ongoing body, changing only 1/3 of its members every election cycle. This means that when events threaten to swamp one of the political parties in a given election year, one of the parts of government would be insulated from this sweep.
Here are a couple of examples of how this has worked:
In November of 1974 (after Nixon’s resignation in August of that year), the Democrats swept the House, picking up 49 seats and raising their margin in the house above the 2/3 level – what’s called a “veto-proof” majority. However, the Democrats picked up only 4 seats in the Senate – reaching a respectable 60 seats, but not the veto-proof majority achieved in the House.
In 2010 (Obama’s first midterm elections), the Republicans picked up 63 seats to gain the majority in the House (Obama called this a “shellacking.”) In the Senate, however, the modest pick-up of six seats by Republicans allowed the Democrats to retain the majority.
George Washington is said to have told Thomas Jefferson that the framers had created the Senate to “cool” House legislation just as a saucer was used to cool hot tea.
Now let’s go back to the text box at the beginning of this essay. You’re probably wondering: “So how did they make this happen?” Gather ’round. It was set up by the provision in boldface type in the box at the top of this page. This provision was used only once – during the first Congressional elections in 1788-89 (this election went over into 1789 because not all the states got their act together in time to hold an election in 1788) – but the consequences of it have been long-range and important.
So here’s what happened.
The legislature of each state chose two members to sit in the Senate. (Voters didn’t directly elect senators until the passage of the 17th Amendment in 1913.)
All of the selected Senators assembled in New York City, which was the capital of the United States in 1789; the capital was moved to Philadelphia in 1790 and to Washington DC in 1800.
They drew lots to determine who would be in the first, second, and third classes of Senators. No state could have both Senators in the same class.
The Senators of the first class would serve only a two-year term and would have to run again (for a six-year term this time) in 1790.
The Senators of the second class would serve a four-year term and would have to run again (for a six-year term this time) in 1792.
The Senators of the third class would serve a full six-year term and would have to run again (for their next full term) in 1794.
Every time a new state was admitted to the Union, its two Senators would be assigned to classes to maintain an equal number (or as equal as possible, given that dividing an even number by three means that one of the classes would have an extra number of Senators). The extra seat was allocated to the third class; so the split currently is 33/33/34, to make up the 100 Senators.
The Senators up for election in 2022 were in the third class. In 2024, Senators in the first class will be up for reelection, and in 2026 we’ll see Senators in the second class on the ballot.
Well, thank you, Karen (I’m sure you’re thinking). I hadn’t really asked about this process, but now I’m glad I know it. I guess.
Here’s why I’m writing about this.
Class three (the Senators up for election this year) included 14 Democrats and 20 Republicans. Whenever a seat is on the ballot, it’s at risk. One reason that the Democrats were able to keep the Senate this year is that they only had 14 seats at risk. This was a target-rich environment for Democrats. The Republicans had 20 seats at risk – and they nominated some pretty lame candidates, who ultimately lost.
The first class is up in 2024. That class has 21 Democrats, 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats, and 10 Republicans. This will be a target-rich environment for Republicans. Seats held by Democrats in the following states will be up for reelection in 2024.
In addition, the seats of independents Bernie Sanders (Vermont) and Angus King (Maine) will be on the ballot in 2024. Sanders will be 83 in 2024 and King will be 80. They should retire (IMHO). Given the general electoral trend in these states, there’s a strong likelihood that a Democrat would win an election to replace them. But that means these seats are additional targets for Republicans, and additional races where the Democrats would have to recruit candidates and fund campaigns to ensure victory.
Some of these seats are in reliable “blue” states – California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Washington. It’s important to remember, however, not to take anything for granted.
Two of these Democratic seats are in reliable “red” states– Montana and West Virginia. These will be tough seats to defend. Senator Tester from Montana and Senator Manchin from West Virginia are Democratic party outliers at best. If they choose not to run again, it is unlikely that any other Democrat from these states could win. I haven’t been able to find out what Tester plans to do in 2024, but I have read that Senator Manchin has indicated that he intends to run in 2024. As much as I dislike Senator Manchin, Democrats kinda need him to run again.
But several of these states are now best thought of as “swing” states – Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. The Democrats have to win in all of these states to have a shot at maintaining the majority in the Senate
There are only eight Senate Republicans up for reelection in 2024 – in Utah, Texas, Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Illinois. The only shot I see for a Democratic pick-up is maybe in Illinois.
Well, thank you again, Karen. Good hearing from you this morning. But again I ask, why?
This is directed toward everyone who thinks that the December 6 run-off election in Georgia isn’t important, because the Democrats have already secured a majority in the Senate with the victories in Arizona and Nevada. If Herschel Walker wins the Senate seat in Georgia, this is one more seat that will be safely in Republican hands as the future of the Senate is decided on November 5, 2024. I’d rather already have one more Democratic Senator than have to win a Democratic seat in one of the swing states or red states in 2024.
I saw a statement on Twitter earlier this week that made me decide to write this today. “Anyone who says Georgia doesn’t matter now hasn’t looked at the 2024 electoral map.”
Right you are! Very important to remember!