Portent

I’ve written before about the importance of state and local elections in a political climate where the drama of national politics takes up everyone’s mental space.  Today I want to talk about the results of Virginia’s primary elections that were held yesterday, June 18.  The GOP in Virginia had competitive primaries for the United States Senate seat and three of the state’s 11 Congressional Districts.  On the other side, Democrats had primaries in five House districts.

First, let’s look at the GOP primary to select an opponent for incumbent Senator Tim Kaine.  This primary was won by retired US Navy Captain Hung Cao, who defeated four opponents to get the nod to run against Kaine in November.  Cao has a compelling backstory, having fled Vietnam with his family when he was four years old.  Cao won for several reasons: he had name recognition because he had run a competitive congressional race two years ago in Northern Virginia, he was able to raise a lot of money, and he was endorsed by the former President #P01135809.  So far as I can tell, Cao parrots the “policies” associated with the MAGA wing of the GOP.  Cao vows to “save America” if he is able to defeat Kaine in November.

There were also several significant Congressional primaries in Virginia’s 11 House of Representatives districts. 

The race that has received the most attention (and remains unresolved as of this morning) is in Virginia’s Fifth Congressional District, which stretches across the central part of the state (pale yellow on the map).  In a race that is widely seen as a signal for the strength of an endorsement by the felon at the head of the national GOP, John McGuire is leading incumbent Bob Good by around 400 votes.  The current drama results from the fact that Good initially supported Ron DeSantis in this year’s GOP presidential primaries, earning the enmity of #P01135809 and his acolytes.  After DeSantis dropped out of the race, Good endorsed the former President, but it wasn’t enough.  Despite the fact that Good donned his blue suit and red tie to abase himself on the steps of the Manhattan Courthouse during the recent trial, McGuire received the coveted endorsement.

We should not see this as a contest between MAGA and non-MAGA.  This is interesting in part because Good is the head of the Freedom Caucus in the House – the most MAGA faction of the House GOP which includes such legislative lions as Jim Jordan, Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar, Lauren Boebert, Byron Donalds, and Scott Perry.  The far-right wing of the GOP is openly signaling that the Freedom Caucus may be too mainstream for today’s GOP.

In an interesting twist, Good is not conceding this morning, saying that he will wait “until all the votes are counted.”  Good idea, Bob.  No wonder #P01135809 doesn’t like you.

In Virginia’s First Congressional District (olive green on the map), two very qualified Democrats vied for the opportunity to run against incumbent GOP Congressman Rob Wittman in November.  I have know one of the candidates, Herb Jones, for several years, and have campaigned for him in his two earlier races: in 2021, he ran unsuccessfully against our State Senator Tommy Norment and in 2022 he ran unsuccessfully against Congressman Wittman. 

In this year’s primary, he had an opponent for the Democratic nomination, Leslie Mehta, and he was defeated rather resoundingly by her in yesterday’s primary.  Herb was a very positive and optimistic candidate, absorbing his early defeats by resolutely going out to run again.  His comment always was “a candidate has to run three times before he should expect to win.”  This was his third race, and because he is 64 years old, I think it was probably his last.

This is a personal defeat for Herb, but on a policy level there were few significant differences between these candidates.  I’m not sure that Wittman can be defeated, as his district skews Republican and he has the power of incumbency and name recognition, but Leslie Mehta (age 47) will make a strong effort in the upcoming general election.  

There was another interesting Democratic Primary in Virginia’s 7^th Congressional District (dark red on the map), which extends from the outer suburbs of Washington into the north-central part of the state.  The victorious candidate in this 7-candidate primary was Yevgeny (Eugene) Vindman, whose name you may recognize for the role that he and his brother Alexander played during the #P01135809 administration.  Just to recap – the Vindmans are twin brothers born in Ukraine but brought to New York at the age of three by their father after their mother had died.

Alexander Vindman was director for European Affairs in the White House National Security Council until he was reassigned in February, 2020.  He came to national attention in October of 2019 when he testified before Congress regarding the “perfect phone call”  shakedown of Ukrainian President Zzelensky.  He retired from the Army later in 2020, citing vengeful behavior and bullying by #P01135809 and administration officials after he complied with the Congressional subpoena to testify in front of Congress during the first impeachment hearings. 

 Yevgeny (Eugene) Vindman stood by his brother during the impeachment kerfuffle, including by drafting a portion of his brother’s opening statement.  This association led to his removal from his position at the National Security Council when his brother was fired.  Since then, both Vindman brothers have been outspoken in their denunciation of the former president.  According to several sources, this district leans Democratic, so this bodes well for Vindman in November.

The 7^th congressional district seat is an open seat; the incumbent, Democrat Abigail Spangberger, chose not to run again.  She is currently the front-runner in her campaign for Governor in Virginia, an election that will be held in 2025. 

The last race I’m going to talk about this morning is in Virginia’s 10^th Congressional District (light orange at the top of the map) encompassing more of the outer suburbs of Washington, DC.  Loudoun, the most populous county in the district with over 400,000 residents (more than half of the district’s population), is also the wealthiest county in the nation, with a median household income of $170,463.  Its voters skew to Democrats, with the county supporting Democratic candidates for President since 2008.

The victorious candidate in the 12-candidate (!) Democratic primary yesterday was Suhas Suramanyam, who received 30.3% of the vote.  The next closest vote-getter received 26.7% of the vote, and every other candidate polled at 10% or below.  Suramanyam is a current member of the Virginia State Senate, having previously served as the first Indian-American and Hindu to ever be elected to the Virginia House of Delegates in 2019. 

Jennifer Wexton, the current Democratic incumbent in this seat, did not run for reelection because she had been diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease in April 2023.  Her diagnosis was later changed to progressive supranuclear palsy, which she has described as “Parkinson’s on steroids.”  She did not step down after her diagnosis, instead doing her job despite the effect of her illness on her mobility, her hearing, and her ability to speak.  In May 2024, she began to use a text-to-speech app to deliver a speech on the floor of the house, becoming the first House member to use this type of technology.  I saw a news report about her last week, as she made her way through the corridors of the Capitol using a walker and did an interview with a reporter using her iPad talk-to-text function.  It is an inspiring story.

So that’s it for today about Virginia’s elections.  There are things to be happy about and things to be concerned about, but, overall, I’m okay with how things turned out.