Now What?

Let’s agree that three things are true about last night’s Presidential “debate.”

1. Biden looked and sounded terrible but was generally on top of the facts and details (with some unfortunate exceptions)

2. #P01135809 appeared tan and rested but lied every time he opened his mouth.

3. The punditocracy focused on the first item on the list rather than the second.

I’m not going to write about these three points this morning.  Other people (some of them with staff) are doing that.  Today I’m going to write about three topics about which #P01135809 consistently spouts incorrect information.

Tariffs

#P01135809 pats himself on the back by proclaiming that the tariffs he placed on goods imported from China are good for the United States and bad for China.  But that’s not how tariffs work.  Tariffs are a tax paid by the buyers – in this case individuals, corporations, or governments in the United States.  Because tariffs are a tax, the revenue generated flows to the taxing authority – in this case, the government of the United States.  Most imported goods are then resold in the country where they had been purchased in the first place – in this case, in secondary markets in the United States.  To compensate for the tax (or tariff) the importers had to pay, the commercial sellers raise the price they charge for the item.  When end-use purchasers buy the item, they pay the jacked-up price. China and the US government benefit from tariffs. Consumers do not.

But it goes deeper than that.  Domestic producers of the same or similar products are now free to raise their prices and still attract buyers, thus raising prices for everyone to the level at (or just below) the price of the imported good plus the tariff.  People often justify tariffs through this exact argument; tariffs protect ‘infant industries’ in a country against lower-priced imports to allow domestic industries' production process to become efficient enough to undercut the costs of the imported goods. 

#P01135809 constantly talks about making China pay the tariffs.  That’s not how tariffs work.  A tariff can have a detrimental effect on the economy of the nations that produce the imported goods.  If the tariffs are high enough to make buyers seek other sources for the imported goods, the producing country will have a hard time selling the product on the market in the nation that imposed the tariff.  But that’s not what #P01135809 says.  He doesn’t understand this.

NATO Funding

#P01135809 is proud of saying that he strong-armed the European members of NATO to fork over the cash to fund NATO.  Again, that’s not how NATO funding works.  NATO maintains a small operational budget that is funded by member nation contributions, but funding for NATO military operations is contained within the defense budgets of the member nations.  A decade or so ago, NATO nations committed to achieving the goal of having 2% of their national budgets go to defense expenditures by 2024 – in their own countries, not under the NATO umbrella.  Thus, if the Germans, for example, reached this goal, they would use this money to build up their own army, navy, and air force.  The assumption is that beefed-up military institutions within NATO will make NATO stronger militarily.  Earlier this year, NATO leadership announced that 23 of the 32 NATO nations had achieved this goal.  Contrary to what #P01135809 claimed, none of this money ‘poured into the United States.’

The United States, by contrast, devotes about 6% of its budget to defense.  But the global reach of American military power expands both further and more deeply into other parts of the world.  Most European NATO members, by contrast, expend most of these funds on the defense of the European continent.

Logan Act

#P01135809 has probably heard of this act, although I don’t think he would be able to talk about it in any depth.  Broadly stated, this 18^th-century statute reserves to the President (and organizations he controls) the power to conduct United States foreign policy. The Act was passed following George Logan's unauthorized negotiations with France in 1798 and was signed into law by President John Adams on January 30, 1799.  Violation of this act is a felony.  So we should not be surprised, I guess, that the felon on the stage last night, #P01135809, openly admitted his intention to violate this act if he wins the November election.

In the debate, #P01135809 claimed he would end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza through the power of his very existence before he is even inaugurated in January.  He is unconcerned about whether statements like this prolong the very wars he suggests he will stop.  Why should Netanyahu or Putin engage in serious negotiations with the current administration if the wannabe autocrat running for the presidency (who has made it clear that he would advocate ceding Ukrainian territory to his buddy Putin and ceding Gaza to his buddy Netanyahu) promises them a good result before the end of the year?

Of course, #P01135809 can’t accomplish this before he (Goddess forbid) takes office.  And he won’t be able to do it afterward, either. When he purges the State Department, Defense Department, and CIA of professionals (and replaces them with the likes of Roger Stone, Ali Alexander, Stephen Miller, and Marjorie Taylor Green), the autocrats of the world will be rubbing their hands with glee as they contemplate how they can flatter #P01135809 into giving them whatever they want.

I could go on but I won’t.  Based on the commentary I’ve been hearing around me this morning, a lot of thoughtful and well-meaning people are very worried about what will happen in this election cycle.  I don’t have anything to say that will assuage their anxiety.  If I could think of something, I would employ it to assuage my own anxiety. 

But contrary to much of what I’m hearing, I still have confidence in the American voters’ ability to discern BS when they hear or read it.  The MAGA voters won’t change their opinions, of course.  But this group is at best around 30% of the country, and 30% doesn’t win elections.  Educated elites frequently underestimate the intelligence of people they perceive to be less educated or less informed (not the same thing).  But my grandfather, who never graduated from high school, had a great BS sniffer. 

This means we all have work to do, my friends.  We don’t have to know everything.  We don’t have to climb on a soapbox to hector passers-by.  But we need to do a few things:

1. Learn some specifics about issues you think people either don’t understand or are confused about.  Figure out ways to let people know what you know.

2. Find your local party organization and ask how you can help.  It’s important to get Democratic voters to the polls.  If Democrats are turned off by the Biden candidacy, they won’t show up to vote, and that could mean defeat for down-ballot races.  We can’t let the GOP control the Presidency, House, and Senate.  There would be no guardrails.  Campaigns need all kinds of help, from door-knocking, phone banking, postcard-writing, campaign office support, baking cookies for people who are doing these jobs, housing seasonal campaign workers, maintaining spreadsheets of various kinds, serving as an election officer, and providing transportation for voters on election day.  Donate money if you don’t know what else to do.  We have to counter the Koch brothers one donation at a time.  There are undoubtedly other tasks I’m not thinking of. Call the campaign office.  Drop by and ask how you can help.  It’s essential.

3. Participate in voter registration efforts.  Every election cycle, I make up business cards (cheap through Instaprint) and pass them out as I go about my daily business.  I have to confess that I don’t do this randomly.  I go to the neighborhoods and shopping districts where I am most likely to find people who, at least demographically, are more likely to be Democrats.  Go to the places where minorities, immigrants, and the economically disadvantaged are more likely to be.  I don’t go to my town’s gated communities or overpriced farmers’ markets to distribute voter information.  I’ll let the Republicans get out their own voters.

4. When the election is over – whatever happens – stay involved.  Parties don’t just pop up during an election year to run campaigns.  In the off-years, they are busy developing party infrastructure and cultivating potential candidates for the next elections.  Candidate recruitment, encouragement, and funding are critical functions of political parties.  If you are dissatisfied with the candidates you face in an election cycle, the only way to avoid that next time is to play a role in the candidate selection process this time around.

I know that none of this is very satisfying.  To really understand the impact of last night’s debate, we have to watch events unfold.  Just a reminder – Judge Merchan will be sentencing #P01135809 on July 11.  His sentencing decision will take into account all of the things #P01135809 is doing and saying, including his continued attack on the Manhattan trial, Jack Smith, Fani Willis, Tish James, and others.  The judge will also be considering #P01135809’s statement a week or so ago in an interview with Sean Hannity that if he doesn’t win in November, it will be a sign that the election was stolen and that his supporters might just have to respond violently.  I don’t have any idea what it would look like if Judge Merchan sentences #P01135809 to serve jail time as punishment for his felony convictions – which is what would happen to any other defendant with this number of convictions and this little admission of culpability and commitment to re-offend – but it is within the realm of possibility.

Pay attention as well to what Team Normal in the GOP does.  On Wednesday of this week, Adam Kinzinger announced that he will be voting for President Biden.  He was joined by Georgia’s GOP Lieutenant Governor, Geoff Duncan, who encouraged Republican voters to vote for Biden so that the GOP can rid itself of #P01135809 – he used the words ‘end the nightmare’ – and spend the next several years regrouping and becoming a functional policy-based political party again.  If Biden had presented a stronger debate performance last night, it would have been easier for more Republicans to follow suit.