Today I’m writing about the geopolitical impact of the current conflict between Israel and Hamas. Like most of you, I’m confused about what’s going on in the Middle East. I’m reminded of the fable of the frog and the scorpion:
The frog and the scorpion were trying to cross a river there somewhere in the Middle East.
The scorpion couldn't swim and the frog was lost, so the scorpion proposed a deal: Give me a ride on your back and I'll show you the way.
The frog agreed and the trip went fine until they got to the middle of the river and the scorpion stung the frog. As they were sinking, the frog asked in his dying breath, "Why would you do that?"
To which the scorpion replied, "Because it is the Middle East."
There’s plenty of betrayal and tragedy to go around in this part of the world. But today I want to tell you about a very smart analysis I read in Foreign Policy, a global affairs magazine founded in 1970. Here’s the link to the article, called “The World Won’t Be the Same After the Israel-Hamas War”; it’s not very long and it’s very good. I’m just going to provide the high spots here.
First off, the article’s author assumes that the current fighting will not lead to a larger regional conflict, although he doesn’t rule out the possibility entirely. But he days say that this conflict will change the status of global affairs in significant ways.
This war puts a monkey wrench in the Biden administration’s Saudi-Israel normalization effort, undertaken in part to help in the US de facto economic war against China. The goal was to dissuade Saudi Arabia from moving closer to China by extending a formal security guarantee to Riyadh in exchange for the Saudis normalizing relations with Israel.
In pursuit of its quasi-economic war against China, the US had hoped to devote less time and attention to the Middle East and shift attention to East Asia, including China.
One major issue is simply bandwidth; more attention to the conflict in the Middle East means less attention elsewhere. What the article calls a simmering upheaval in the State Department over the administration’s response to this conflict makes this problem even more difficult to solve.
In short, this war is not good news for any country facing growing pressure from China – including important US allies like Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines.
One thing that I like about this article is that it provides links to background information on the facts it cites. None of us have the time to become experts on all of the issues we face in the world around us, but all of us have the time to turn to the insights of experts who have spent decades understanding things so they can explain them to us.
This podcast spends some time talking about this conflict (again), along with other world events that tend to get drowned out by the immediacy of this conflict. Their detailed discussion of this conflict lasts from the 2:50 point in the video to the 37:13 mark. The last 15 minutes of the show focus on an interview with Nathan Thrall, Jewish-American author of “A Day in the Life of Abed Salama” – a story of the realities of life for Palestinians in the West Bank.
Once again, I’m impressed with the knowledge and empathy of the podcast hosts to both understand and explain what’s going on.
Hi, Karen! Thanks for your insightful article yesterday and today. I always enjoy reading your perspective on things and appreciate the links to the podcasts. I listen to them when I walk the track at our nearby Y.
I also listen to a variety of music from many different composers and artists including a song with the lyrics, “we’re going, heaven knows where we’re going but we will get there….the road will be muddy and long but we will get there…..” and that’s my hope as we continue to respond to the challenges we face in our world, each and every day. 😎