Virginia has an odd election schedule. In odd-numbered years, voters in the state chose their statewide officials – members of the House of Delegates and State Senate, along with statewide executive, including the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General.
While most of the rest of the country is focused on the upcoming 2024 election, when control over the United States Congress and most state legislatures will be decided by the voters – along with the presidency, in case you haven’t heard.
So while Virginians are also looking toward 2024, our attention is drawn one year into the future. In November of 2025, Virginia will be selecting its statewide executives. Virginia’s constitution does not allow governors to serve two successive terms, so the current governor, Republican Glenn Youngkin, will be out of a job.
Two Democrats had declared their candidacy for the governor’s position: Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney (pictured above) and Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (who has represented Virginia’s 7th Congressional District since 2018).
Virginia politicians are currently jockeying for position as we look beyond 2024 to 2025. Virginia is a purple state trending blue, and the Democrats have a good shot at achieving a Democratic trifecta in the 2025 elections – the Democrats could control the governorship, the state House of Delegates, and the State Senate. The last time the Democrats had this governing trifecta, they passed significant progressive legislation in Virginia in the areas of the environment, voting rights, criminal justice, and health care. A Democratic trifecta in 2025 would solidify the identity of Virginia as a blue state for years to come.
Congresswoman Spanberger had significant advantages over Mayor Stoney in this race. Her presence on the national stage over the past six years has made her a very efficient fundraiser, and her national security background and overall moderate political positions make her a formidable political opponent. In her last congressional race in 2022, she received endorsements from Democrats and Republicans alike – including Republican Liz Cheney.
Mayor Stoney has decided instead to run for Lieutenant Governor. Because a governor cannot serve a second consecutive term in the state, the Lieutenant Governor position is often seen as a stepping-stone to the Governorship. Several other Democrats had previously announced their candidacy for the Lieutenant Governor spot on the ticket. This will work out over the next year, with party primaries scheduled for the spring of 2025.
This decision leaves Congresswoman Spanberger as the only Democrat running for governor at this point. It is expected that the current Lieutenant Governor, Republic Winsome Sears, and Attorney General, Jason Miyares, will compete for their party’s nomination.
Virginia’s gubernatorial race always occurs the year after a presidential election year, and is often interpreted as a referendum on the winner of the presidency the previous year. In 2017, Virginians elected a Democrat, Ralph Northam, as their governor, a vote widely seen as a criticism of the results of the 2016 election. In 2021, Virginians elected a Republican, the current governor Glenn Youngkin, a vote widely seen as a criticism of the results of the 2020 election. Whoever wins the presidency in 2024, one of the first indicators of a public reaction to the result will come in Virginia’s elections. Stay tuned.
I’ve supported Abagail from day one. I think Lavar is a fine person and his decision to run for lt gov is a smart move. ‘24 and ‘25 are going to be some busy years and cause for more political exhaustion. I think that’s the thing I don’t like about VA elections and I think they set it up that way for a reason. They’d rather not have us at the polls, so they made it every year so we’d claim to be sick and tired of the whole thing and stay home.