The second lecture in the Foreign Policy Association Great Decisions lecture series was Tuesday, February 14. Much of the information I’ll include in this essay is taken from the Foreign Policy Association’s briefing book that people enrolled in the program receive. I wrote more about this briefing book in my February 9 essay. Just a reminder – these programs are sponsored in Williamsburg by the League of Women Voters and the lectures are held in the auditorium of the local public library.
The topic for this week is ”Climate change, environmental degradation, and migration.” The author of the essay is Karen Jacobson. She is the Henry J. Leir Professor in Global Migration at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and directs the Refugees in Towns Project at the Leir Institute for Migration and Human Security. Her current research explores urban displacement and global migration, with a focus on the livelihoods and financial resilience of migrants and refugees, and on climate mobility.
Here's one of her main ideas: Climate change doesn’t happen all at once. To borrow a term from psychology, the phenomenon occurs over time as a series of micro-aggressions. Increased heat and drought occur in some areas while other areas experience more intense storms, wind, and rainfall. Sea level rise makes some coastal areas uninhabitable. Mind you, these coastal areas are not suddenly under water all the time; rather, the days when the residents confront standing water in the streets might double, or shop owners may have to sandbag their doorways more often.
The essay's author spends several paragraphs laying out the causes of climate change; her conclusion is that. The bottom line seems to be that, although the climate or the earth normally fluctuates over time, human activity has made this current warning trend more problematic. Among other problems, she lists the destruction of the rain forests, urban sprawl, and loss of species diversity. Apparently when you “pave paradise and put up a parking lot” it has long-term consequences.
She breaks her analysis down into two parts:
Who the climate migrants are, how large the migration is, and where the migrants go
Financial considerations are the largest (although not the only) driver of climate migration
As you would imagine, it is difficult to get an accurate number of people displaced by climate change. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center https://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2021/, in 2020, conflict and disasters triggered 40.5 million new internal displacements across 149 countries and territories.
Where they go depends on the type of disaster they face. Sudden onset events usually result in people moving somewhere else in the country – generally to cities – while gradual onset climate events lead to a wider variety of destinations. This map shows what happens.
What the policy responses are, from international organizations, city and national governments, and civil society? What is being done now? What could be done? What should be done?
The international community has responded through multilateral organizations associated with the United Nations. These agencies work in conjunction with other global organizations, like the International Committee of the Red Cross. The efforts by these organizations are hindered by the fact that there is no treaty governing the treatment of climate migrants – and no general recognition of the concept of “climate refugees.”
Since most climate migration occurs withing countries rather than internationally, the decisions by individual countries are critical for a global response. A recent study by the RAND Corporation notes that national governments pursue climate mobility policies for five main reasons: security and the rule of law, rights, development, preservation of customers and cultures, and “resilience.” These policies can reinforce each other but can also lead to conflicting policies.
The author concludes by talking about the future. Policy-makers have recognized the futility of trying to prevent climate-related migration and instead are focusing on ways to mitigate displacement. She identifies new technologies such as early warning systems and innovative farming techniques.
The suggested discussion questions are provocative:
As you read in the article, many individuals forced to relocate from climate change often cannot afford to. In the case of the United States, what role should the government play in assisting domestic climate refugees? What role, if any, should the US government play in assisting international climate refugees?
The author states that the IPCC has toned down most of its forecasts for the future because an “apocalyptic narrative” can have a numbing effect and that negative messaging can harm efforts to raise awareness for climate change issues. If this form of messaging is ineffective, what is an effective way to raise awareness and promote change? How can we best convince people to listen?
Wealthy individuals are often those that can have the biggest impact in helping the climate crisis but are also those that can afford to escape the negative effects of it. How can the world convince them that they should care about climate change and persuade them to use their resources to make a difference/
As highlighted in the article, indigenous peoples and their entire lifestyles are often heavily affected by climate change but are rarely given a voice in climate-related decisions. What should we do about promoting dialogue with indigenous peoples and giving them a voice in climate discussion?
The author notes how businesses often have to change their practices and in some cases have to relocate because of the climate crisis. How can world leadership encourage market-driven innovation related to climate change?
Jacobson’s essay ends with a list of suggested readings. Here are a few of them.
Baldwin, A. and G. Bettini. Life adrift: Climate change, migration, critique. Rowman & Littlefield. 2017. A collection of essays from the interpretive social sciences and humanities that treats climate change and migration as a relation that demands a
theoretical and historical explanation, rather than a problem requiring technical and expert solutions.
Blake, J.S., A. Clark-Ginsberg and J Balagna. Addressing Climate Migration: A review of National Approaches. Santa Monica, CA, RAND Corporation. A good discussion of types of policies related to climate mobility and how policies can influence people’s exposure to climate-related hazards, access to mitigation strategies, and ability to move safely and with dignity if necessary.
McLeman, Robert and Francois Gemenne. Routledge Handbook of Environmental Displacement and Migration. Routledge, 2018. A review and assessment of existing knowledge and future research priorities related to climate-related migration.
The last item on the website is a link to the “latest news.” It provides two links:
A November 2022 BBC article called “Is the World Ready for Mass Migration Due to Climate Change?” https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20221117-how-borders-might-change-to-cope-with-climate-migration
A January 2023 article in Zurich magazine entitled “There could be 1.2 billion climate refugees by 2050. Here’s what you need to Know.” https://www.zurich.com/en/media/magazine/2022/there-could-be-1-2-billion-climate-refugees-by-2050-here-s-what-you-need-to-know.
I didn’t know about Zurich magazine until today, but it looks interesting.
The phrase “when you pave paradise and put up a parking lot” pretty much says it all.....