Explain It to Me Like I’m Five

Random Sunday Musing

Okay, so the current Republican president and his allies in Texas seem to believe that voters in Texas should have more Republicans in their delegation to Congress – and in their state legislature as well, thank you very much.

Here’s the deal. Trump won 56.14% of the votes cast for President in Texas. This is a good number. In the same election cycle, Senator Ted Cruz was reelected to his Senate seat with 53% of the vote. That’s still a good number.

If Texas were fairly districted, observers might anticipate a healthy Republican majority in the Texas delegation to the United States House of Representatives, as well as strong GOP majorities in both houses of the Texas state legislature. These majorities should be somewhere between 55% and 60%, give or take. If these majorities were not there – or were not strong – then it would be fair to suggest that Texas should redistrict to more accurately reflect the voting preferences of the electorate.

But here are the margins, along with how the enacted districts were graded by the Princeton Gerrymandering Project:

United States Congressional Representatives from Texas:

25 Republicans 12 Democrats 1 vacancy GOP margin: 66%

Texas State Senate

19 Republicans 11 Democrats 1 vacancy GOP margin: 61%

Texas State House of Representatives

88 Republicans 62 Democrats GOP margin: 57%

To sum this up, Texas Republicans are already overrepresented in their legislatures. In the United States Congress, Republicans are overrepresented by somewhere around 10%. In the State Senate, Republicans are overrepresented by about 5%. Only in the state House (the lower house) does the GOP hold seats in rough approximation to the percentage of Republican voters in the state.

In what universe does the current Republican president, along with his allies in Texas, think that republicans in Texas deserve MORE seats in Congress, much less FIVE MORE seats as the addled dude in the White House seems to want? Adding five more republicans to the Texas delegation to the House of Representatives would give the GOP 78% of the seats – a majority that is not justified by fairness or logic. And there is no reason to believe that republicans in Texas will stop at redrawing the districts for the United States House of Representatives. They will also redraw the districts for the state legislature, further skewing the vote as they attempt to cement GOP majorities for the foreseeable future.

Now let’s add some more uncertainty. Texas voters do not register by political party. Voter identification can be determined by only a few factors – participation in party primaries (which is a good indicator of strong party preference) and various racial, gender, or economic markers that identify individuals as probable Democrats or Republicans. This is an inexact science, and there’s no reason to believe that Texas republicans have created sophisticated models of the electorate that will take into account the fluid state of party preference as groups across the country have realized that the current Republican president sold them a bill of goods in 2024. No one can predict how voters will swing by the time the 2026 midterms come around.

Explain it to me.