The Pod Save the World podcast from this week talked about a number of international issues, but the one that caught my attention was the impact of elections in countries we don’t hear much about: Turkey and Thailand. Then, in the “World Roundup” newsletter I got from Foreign Exchanges, I saw more about each of these stories. So I decided to tell you about them today.
This is not just of academic interest; both countries have been going through a 20+year period of growing authoritarianism, with significant consequences for the health of their democracies and for the world around them.
I have included several maps for the cartophiles among you (you know who you are).
Turkey
The country is in the process of electing a president, with incumbent Recep Erdoğan facing mounting criticism of his regime in the face of a challenge from Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who underperformed in last Sunday’s first-round election. Erdoğan was elected Prime Minister in 2003 and initially governed as a moderate, seeking EU membership for Turkey and presiding over an economic recovery from a 2001 economic crisis. He embarked on an ambitious program of economic development, including vast building projects to modernize the country.
In 2014, he led an effort to rewrite the Turkish constitution, and in 2017 he was elected President under this new regime. The new Constitution vastly expanded the powers of the Presidency, and his governing style has become increasingly authoritarian, as he has aligned Turkey with Putin’s Russia. Because Turkey literally sits astride both Europe and the Middle East, and because it is a member of NATO, increased authoritarianism in Turkey is a threat to the stability of both regions, as they attempt to navigate the twin threats of terrorism and Putin.
In the current election, Erdoğan’s opposition, the “Nation Alliance,” is committed to reverting Turkey’s constitution back to the parliament system away from the presidential system. The main campaign issues revolve around the deadly earthquake in February of 2023, which left over 50,000 dead. The government was criticized on two broad points:
the poorly administered building programs over Erdoğan’s tenure, when corruption in the awarding of contracts led to the building of substandard buildings which then collapsed
its slow response to the earthquake
Because of Erdoğan’s success in consolidating power in the presidency, including the silencing of opposition, his good showing in Sunday’s first-round elections indicates that he is on the road to winning the presidency again. Turkey’s presidential election law requires a run-off election if no candidate wins a majority of the vote in the first round; Erdoğan received 49.5% of the vote and fell just a bit short of what he needed to be declared the victor.
The final election is scheduled for Sunday, May 28, with the results expected to be final by June 1. Stability in Turkey is threatened by the return of Erdoğan, who is a deeply polarizing figure in the country.
Thailand
This country also held national elections on Sunday, and the election results are generally more favorable to the pro-democracy forces in the country. The podcast specifically outlined some key details of Thailand’s history since 1991, which features repeated military coups that have undermined the solidification of democracy in the country. Here are the years in which coups occurred: 1947, 1948, 1957, 1958, 1971, 1976, 1977, 1991, 2006, 2014.
Another factor impacting Thai politics is the recurring presence of the Shinawatra family. Thaksin Shinawatra served as Prime Minister from 2001-2006, and his sister Yinluck Shinawatra was elected prime minister in 2011. Thaksin Shinawatra’s tenure in office features policies to alleviate rural poverty, including a universal healthcare program and infrastructure investment. However, his government was increasingly accused of dictatorship, demagogy, corruption, and human rights offenses.
The 2006 election was controversial; suffice it to say, Thaksin ended up seeking asylum in Britain after a military coup replaced him while he was attending a UN summit in New York City. He returned to Thailand to face investigation for allegations of financial fraud, which froze his family assets (76 billion baht, roughly $2.5 billion). He returned to Thailand in 2008, after his party won the first post-coup elections, but he applied (unsuccessfully) for asylum in the UK after visiting Beijing for the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics. He moved from one country to another for several years while the Thai Supreme Court sentenced him in absentia to two years imprisonment for various corruption-related offenses. In 2009, Thaksin obtained Montenegrin citizenship through that country’s economic citizenship program. He has not returned to Thailand.
Meanwhile (or on a parallel track) Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra (nicknamed “Pou”) was elected Prime Minister by the party associated with Thaksin. Her tenure in office was characterized by mass protest, culminating in her removal from office by the Constitutional Court of Thailand in 2014. A few weeks later this crisis ended with yet another military coup. Oddly enough, this military coup is seen as a pro-democracy event.
In last Sunday’s election, the party associated with the Shinawatra family finished second to the reformist “Move Forward Party.” The Thai election system is complicated; you should google it. Let’s just say that 67 political parties vied for seats, with broad coalitions among the parties setting forth the issues in the campaign – high energy prices, high unemployment, and falling economic growth. Just to complicate the situation, Thaksin tweeted that he was ready to return to Thailand before July 2023. Stability in Thailand is threatened by the potential return of the deeply polarizing Thaksin Shinawatra .
The newly elected coalition is working now to form a government; this requires the acquiescence of groups not formally in the coalition, which is expected to be difficult. The Royal Thai Armed Forces pledged to respect the results of the general election and not launch a coup. Good to know.
Why We Should Care about the Elections in Turkey and Thailand?
I used to use this Kipling reference to begin my classes on AP Comparative Government. We study the governments of other countries, most simply, to understand how they work. But the result of studying the governments of other countries is better understanding of how our own system of government works — or doesn’t work. Rather than assuming that the US has gotten everything right over the years, the discipline of Comparative Government recognizes that countries can take lessons from events in other countries. We don’t have to assume that there is nothing to be done about political institutions that don’t appear to be functioning; we can look at similar processes in other countries and get an idea of what to do, and perhaps most importantly, what not to do.
We do this in our personal lives all the time. My sister had some serious heart problems and had to undergo an aortic valve replacement. She has since moderated her lifestyle to become healthier, and she is probably in the best health of her life right now. I don’t have to experience my own heart problems to learn from her example; her “wake-up call” woke me up also. I’m am now developing much healthier eating and exercising habits. This is a good thing.
Apart from a general interest in the health of democracies across the globe, Americans should care about what happens in these elections because they reflect a pattern that we have seen in the US since 2016. Both Erdoğan and Thaksin were elected (and originally governed as) moderate reformers. But both gradually moved toward authoritarianism. Erdoğan led the creation of a new Constitution for Turkey, gradually neutralizing opposition and cementing his position in power. Thaksin was removed from power (and exiled), but in his wake, the Thai military is seen as not a threat to democracy, but its savior. This is a troubling development.
I’m not the only one who sees the administration of TFG in the same light. He continues to try to rewrite the US Constitution (not formally, but in practice) and wanted to utilize the US military to keep him in power. Once that particular cat is out of the bag, it’s hard to stuff it back in. Stability in the United States would be threatened by the return of the deeply polarizing TFG. We don’t really have to try it to find out. Sometimes the “find out” comes after the “f**k around” has already done permanent damage.
The world cannot afford a United States that moves in the direction of Turkey and Thailand. The unfortunate thing is that both countries were upheld as a beacon of democratic hope in the world 25 years ago. Now, they are both suffering because of the appeal of authoritarianism to solve seemingly intractable problems.
The United States should take note. This can serve as our own wake-up call.
👋 I wonder how many wake up calls our country will need before things change for the better. 😎
Excellent. Thank you. So true. And thanks for the maps.