Former President #P01135809 clinched the GOP presidential nomination this week with his expected (and unopposed) victories in several primaries, it is increasingly important to recognize what his reelection would look like for the NATO alliance. He has signaled both his unwillingness to support our NATO allies and his desire to appease Putin’s expansionist impulses, which doesn’t bode well for the alliance.
So what would the world look like without NATO?
End of Transatlantic Collective Defense:
Europe would have to provide for its security without the United States. This would require a dramatic increase in defense spending in the European nations, quickly overwhelming these nations politically, financially, and militarily.
More nations would become nuclear powers. The American nuclear umbrella, promised by Article 5 of the NATO Treaty (collective defense) would go away. European nations would be forced to build their own nuclear capability to combat the Russian threat. Nuclear proliferation builds global instability; escalation from conventional to nuclear warfare becomes more likely when there are more parties involved.
An Increase in Russia’s Power in Europe
Under Putin, Russia has shown a great willingness to test the responsiveness of NATO by probing at its perimeter – seizing Chechnya and invading Ukraine, to state the most obvious examples. If the United States were to back away, it is very likely that Putin would feel emboldened to test other nations at the perimeter of the alliance; the remaining nations in NATO would find it difficult to fight back without support from the United States.
Collapse of the Liberal International Order
First, let’s define “Liberal International Order.” This phrase uses the term “liberal” in its classic sense, broadly referring to a political tradition that advocates free market and laissez-faire economics and civil liberties under the rule of law, with special emphasis on individual autonomy, limited government, economic freedom, political freedom, and freedom of speech. It is a political philosophy based on rationality and moderation.
Shaky as it has sometimes been, the post-1945 Liberal International Order has provided for collective defense against enemies like the Soviet Union and Russia while expanding free trade, spreading democracy, and promoting human rights. The network of treaties, diplomatic relations, and economic ties has created an environment where it is in every nation’s best interests to work peacefully with the other nations of the world. Relationships developed during peacetime are used to defuse international tensions when they do arise. The decline in or disappearance of these relationships makes it more likely that an international misunderstanding will result in a shooting war, to the detriment of everyone involved.
If you want to understand more about the Liberal International Order, you should read Rachel Maddow’s 2023 book Prequel: An American Fight Against Fascism. It focuses on the time just as hostilities were breaking out in Europe in the late 1930s when forces supporting fascism almost derailed the American democratic system. Their success would have meant that the Liberal International Order would not have come into existence.
Her book will also inform you about how the impulses that led many Americans to support that earlier move toward fascism are still present today. The MAGA GOP represents much of what the United States and the democratic nations of the world fought against in World War II. #P01135809’s victory in 2024 would mean that, in the end, we will lose this century-long battle.
I wonder what a world without
#PO1135809 would look like?????